How Many Cars Per Person?
What to Do
The Highways Agency is planning to upgrade the A14 road which parallels the
Cambridge-St Ives guided busway. The agency published details of its "statutory
orders" in October.
The closing date for objections is 6 Jan 2010.
At this time we want as many people as possible to object to the scheme. This
applies whatever the grounds you wish to mention - whether you object to the
principle of the scheme or the details, whether you are concerned about the
climate change impact, the cost, or its local effects.
The message we need to
send is "Think Again" and to do this we need to puncture the idea that the
scheme is too urgent to warrant further consideration (which is where the more
global objections are particularly important).
Full details of the scheme can be seen at public libraries and local authority
offices in the area and on the Highways Agency website
Objections should be sent to:
The Secretary of State for Transport,
c/o A14 Ellington to Fen Ditton Team,
Highways Agency,
Woodland,
Manton Lane,
Manton Industrial Estate,
Bedford.
MK41 7LW
to arrive by 6 Jan 2010.
Possible Reasons to Object
Climate Change
Probably the most urgent ground for objection is climate change, which, of
course, is relevant to everyone wherever they live. The Highways Agency's own
figures show that the scheme will increase traffic in the area by about 9%,
generating about 36,000 tonnes of carbon per year. This is equivalent to about
132,000 tonnes of CO2. At the same time the Highways Agency don't have a
validated methodology for estimating induced traffic (i.e. vehicles which are
only making journeys because of the scheme), and it has a record of either
underestimating or overestimating traffic growth -- the former resulting in
building roads to a higher standard than the traffic warrants, and the latter
making the climate change impact worse than expected. The Campaign for Better
Transport shows the A6 (Clapham and Great Glen bypasses) as examples of the
former and the A6 (Rushden bypass) and A46 (Newark-Lincoln) as examples of the
latter.
There must also be questions about how the Government assesses the costs of the
climate change impact. The most plausible measure is the opportunity cost of
reducing emissions elsewhere in the world economy, i.e. the market cost of
permits under an emissions trading system. However this cost will be determined
by the balance between supply and demand, and all the evidence suggests that if
the world really gets to grips with climate change (by setting a low limit for
permitted emissions) it will be a sellers' market, with few permits for the road
transport sector of our economy to buy. Of course it may be that the world won't
get to grips with climate change and will move steadily towards disaster -- the
A14 scheme being one step in this direction -- but should we really decide
policy on this basis?
Cost
Another ground which affects everyone wherever they live -- at least if it's in
the UK -- is cost. At the time the scheme was conceived, which was following the
Cambridge-Huntingdon Multi-Modal Study (CHUMMS), the cost was estimated as £192m.
The Highways Agency were on the steering group of CHUMMS, so they had a
responsibility to use their expertise to ensure that this figure wasn't wildly
out of line.
However, when they entered the scheme into the roads programme the cost had
rocketed to £490m. The cost has continued to rise since then, and is now
estimated as between £1.2 bn and £1.3 bn.
At the same time, other areas of the public sector are being starved of money.
For example, Central Bedfordshire Council has been considering axing all support
for evening and/or Sunday bus services. The saving? A mere £1-200,000 per year.
If this goes ahead to what extent will any traffic relief on the A14 be offset
by a general increase in congestion as people who live in or visit Central
Bedfordshire find they need an extra car (which will of course further increase
greenhouse gas emissions)?
Congestion Charge Hypocracy
Another problem with the scheme is its interaction with the proposed Cambridge
congestion charge. Does it really make sense to clamp down on demand within
Cambridge city while encouraging traffic growth elsewhere in the sub-region?
Isn't there a danger that this will lead to migration of businesses and
facilities out of the city, causing yet further traffic growth as people find
they can't get to their jobs easily by public transport, bike or on foot?
Traffic Magnet
This scheme seems to be designed with a background of
ever increasing traffic. Yes, the section of the existing A14 through Huntingdon
will be detrunked, and will carry less traffic, but it will still intrude on
Huntingdon's commons and act as a magnet for traffic growth in the town -complete with some brand new local roads, also across the commons, to link with it.
CHUMMS called for part of the existing A14 between Fen Drayton and
Huntingdon to be used as a "public transport corridor". This has been ignored,
and the road will remain a dual carriageway all purpose road, inviting further
traffic growth.
Railway Solution Ignored
Soon after CHUMMS another multi-modal study was convened -- the London-South
Midlands one (LSMMMS) -- covering a wider area. One of its recommendations was
for a rail link between Cambridge and Bedford by the most direct route following
the A428/A421 corridor. This has been consistently ignored by the Government,
who refused to reopen the Great Barford Bypass public inquiry (which was under
way when the LSMMMS report was released) to consider the effect of the LSMMMS
recommendations, and it was only at the inquiry into the A428 upgrade west of
Cambridge that they admitted that they hadn't even considered this issue so were
not in a position to provide evidence about it.
How is this relevant to the A14?
Well such a rail link would have to find some
route across the north side of Cambridge, and one possibility worth considering
is to follow the A14. But will there still be room for this if this section is
widened, as the Highways Agency propose?
We are of course aware that this option is not being pursued by the East-West
Consortium, the group of local authorities and other organisations which are
hoping to restore a rail link on the corridor. However they are constrained
because the principal source of finance for the scheme which they are hoping to
tap is developer contributions, and this may not stretch to the cost of a 30
mile or so route, even if it does make the railway much more competitive with
road, and serve Cambourne and St Neots, with possibilities for connections with
Inter-City trains on the East Coast Main Line at the latter.
We have always taken the view that the fulfilment of the East-West Consortium's
project should be seen as only a first step towards the creation of an
integrated transport network for the Cambridge-Oxford arc. There is no way that
a single route can provide for all east-west movement needs to/from centres in
the area, including Aylesbury, Milton Keynes, Northampton, Bedford, Luton,
Stevenage, Cambridge and Stansted Airport.
Problems, Problems, Problems...
Here is a list giving the main problems we have identified with the scheme, from
east to west:
1. East of Girton: Widening of northern bypass will attract more traffic to the
Histon and Milton junctions, and thence towards the city centre. This will also
reduce the putative benefits of the guided busway, as guided buses will approach
the city centre along Histon and Milton Roads (as opposed to conventional buses
on the A14 corridor which will continue to use Huntingdon Road).
As we suggested above, there may also be implications for the east-west rail
link.
2. Girton interchange: There is an opportunity to take traffic off Madingley
Road (outside the M11) by providing slip roads between the A428 and M11 in both
directions. Not only is this not being done, but the redesign of the interchange
will make it much harder to provide an A428 to M11 slip road in future.
Another problem relates to the public right of way between Girton and Dry
Drayton villages. We believe that under a sustainable transport system such
footpaths should be valued not only for recreational purposes but also because
they facilitate movements between local villages. At present there are separate
rights of way from Dry Drayton and Girton to the A14/M11. It isn't clear from
the map whether one can get across. We believe that any rebuild of the road
network in the area would provide an opportunity to provide a safe crossing.
In fact a safe crossing will be provided -- on reaching the A14 from Dry Drayton
walking along the A14 for a short distance, turn right to cross the A428, then
left along a track (not a right of way), then left again to cross the M11, then
across Huntingdon Road, finally reaching Girton by an existing footbridge over
the A14. We estimate that this will almost double the distance -- hardly likely
to encourage people to walk rather than drive.
3. Girton-Bar Hill: Local traffic on this section will be provided by one way
roads, eastbound north of the A14 and westbound south of the A14. The provision
of 4 lanes in total for local traffic, on top of the 6 for through traffic,
represents a massive increase in capacity which can only encourage the people of
Northstowe, when that gets built, to rely on their cars for almost all their
mobility needs (e.g. choosing jobs in places that can only easily be reached by
car).
Furthermore, as a result of this one way operation, there will continue to be no
stop for eastbound buses near the Crematorium. Passengers will have to get on or
off at Oakington Turn, which is quite a long walk away.
4. Bar Hill: At present there is a public bridleway between the site of
Northstowe and the A14 north of Bar Hill. This corridor is likely to become
considerably more important as Northstowe is developed, and it is reasonable to
ask for a bridge across the A14. In fact the Highways Agency are providing such
a bridge. However it is west of the B1050 rather than east, so any cyclists
between Northstowe and Bar Hill will have to negotiate traffic on the B1050, and
this traffic will also be growing considerably as a result of the development
(and also because of the extra capacity between Bar Hill and Girton, see above).
Why couldn't the bridge have been put east of the B1050?
5. Fen Drayton-Godmanchester: The opening of the new road on this corridor was
seen by CHUMMS as providing an opportunity for a public transport corridor on
the existing road. This would entail removing more traffic from the existing
road by designating the crossing of the A1198 as the entrance and exit point for
traffic between Huntingdon and the east. However, traffic will not be able to
use this route as no east facing slip roads will be provided at the A1198
junction. So the existing road will continue to carry substantial volumes of
traffic, if less than now. With relatively poor bus services people will be
encouraged to rely on their cars, and relief to noise in Fenstanton will be less
than hoped for as traffic grows to fill the space available.
Incidentally, we believe that there is no need for a dual 3 lane road west of
the A1198.
6. Godmanchester-Huntingdon: At present historic Godmanchester sees large
volumes of through traffic as motorists exit the A14 east of the community and
drive through en route to Huntingdon, crossing the old Town Bridge. Traffic
through Godmanchester will be reduced under the new layout, but not by as much
as it could be if the opportunity were taken to close Town Bridge to "general"
traffic (not buses, bikes or certain other classes).
This is in addition to the missed opportunity to reclaim the Huntingdon commons
from traffic. The existing road east of the railway does need to be retained to
achieve the benefit of the removal of traffic from Godmanchester. But no
comparable benefit will result from its retention between the railway and the
Spittals Interchange. We would like to see this section closed completely, also
avoiding the alleged need for yet another road across Views Common to link up
with this road.
7. Brampton: There used to be a public footpath crossing the A1 west of
Brampton, linking Brampton West End (served by bus from Huntingdon and St Neots)
with Brampton Wood. This was officially closed some time ago, though it can
still be followed if one is able to negotiate the A1 traffic (which is often
possible) and the ditch that has been built to the west of the A1.
The role which the footpath could fulfil increased considerably when the
Ministry of Defence sold Brampton Wood to the Wildlife Trust, where it is now
open to the public -- if they can get there -- as a nature reserve. It is
Cambridgeshire's second largest ancient woodland. The alternative route by road
is about twice as long.
The A14 is scheduled to run close to the A1 along this stretch, and many
Bramptonians are calling for the inclusion of a bridge to span both these roads
so that they can enjoy the delights of Brampton Wood without having to get their
cars out.
In addition to the above arguments, there are arguments of more local import.
The people of Hilton, the Offords, Brampton and Buckden will suffer increased
noise if the new A14 alignment is built. However the people of Fenstanton,
Godmanchester and some parts of Huntingdon will benefit -- though not by as much
as we would have liked (see 5 and 6 above). Our group does not wish to take
sides on this issue. We welcome objections from the people of the villages which
will lose out, though, as they reinforce our main message which is "Think
Again".
Summary of the above grounds for objection:
A: Climate change.
B: Cost.
C: Missed opportunities for public transport (1, 3 and 5 above).
D: Missed opportunities for cyclists and walkers (2, 4 and 7 above).
E: Extra traffic on existing roads, or missed opportunities to reduce it (1, 2,
3, 5 and 6 above).
Solutions, Solutions, Solutions...
We believe that many of the problems of the A14 can be solved by methods which
don't encourage traffic growth. These include the following:
(a) Upgrade the east-west freight route. There are two aspects to this --
loading gauge (e.g. the maximum height of trains that can use the route) and
capacity (the maximum frequency of trains). Work to upgrade the loading gauge
between Felixstowe and Nuneaton is already programmed. There is also some work
to improve capacity, but not enough.
A fully signalled double track route can take trains every 5 minutes or so --
that's 288 trains per day. There are various factors which mean that the actual
freight capacity is less (passenger trains, junctions, level crossings) but one
can say that it would be possible to upgrade the route to carry all the traffic
on offer. Of course we need first to eliminate the single track sections and the
reversal at Ipswich.
(b) Upgrade the north-south freight route. The A14 also carries a lot of traffic
from the Channel Ports (and tunnel) to Yorkshire and beyond, linking as it does
the M11 and A1. There is no freight route for this traffic that is not both
circuitous and subject to constraints. There should be. One option might be to
run via the High Speed 1 route to Rainham, then Barking, South Tottenham, Seven
Sisters, Cheshunt, Ware and by the new link to Stevenage proposed as part of a
Stansted-Oxford route.
(c) Restrain car commuting in the Cambridge area. The proposed congestion charge
would be a start, but we believe it might be necessary to go beyond this, in
particular to tackle the problem of traffic that doesn't enter the city. How
about a workplace parking tax covering the whole of the Cambridge sub-region?
(d) Provide a long distance passenger route. We suggest a bus route between
Cambridge and Rugby, linking the Ipswich-Cambridge and Rugby-Birmingham rail
routes. The bus would also serve Huntingdon, Thrapston and Kettering, plus other
worthwhile intermediate points. We estimate that in terms of journey time it
could undercut the existing rail service between Cambridge and Birmingham and
become a more attractive option for people who might otherwise drive.
Use rail to relieve the "road from hell" route
By Simon Norton